SNX, are you trying to torture me ?

Do not move up-stream to meet the enemy; Sun Tzu

This week we will get back on our analysis of SNX, we will take a look at our predictions performance on BTC & ETH, and we will also try to compare the different yields protocol that we know of.

SNX, what was that ?

Deception

I shared my analysis of SNX following Ki young Ju tweet on altcoin outflow from exchanges. I went out of my SNX position after noticing the netflow was still very uncertain. It corresponds at my yellow arrow on the chart below:

SNXUSDT 4h on TradingView

4 hours later (and I wish I was kidding), SNX saw a 27% increase in a 24h. The netflow decided to get to levels so negative that they have not been reached in more than a year.

Bounce back part. 2 ?

If we take a macro look (daily chart), we are currently being rejected on the 3 months trend:

SNXUSDT daily on TradingView

From there it can either go down to 16, which would be a good entry, of break the trend and then do a pullback, which would also be a good entry.

SNXUSDT 15min on TradingView

LTF chart shows a pullback, no big selling pressure. So breaking the trend and then pullback would be my favorite prediction, but I will not enter until there is a retest on 4h or on daily.

SNX short conclusion

In conclusion for this part, no regret whatsoever, and in the future getting onto CryptoQuant also made me realize that to understand macro trends it was very important to keep an eye on stablecoins netflow, so I’ve added that to my Chrome favorites.

All stablecoins: All Exchanges Reserve on CryptoQuant

Very interesting to see that on the 3 latest BTC drops, 2 of them are followed by a sharp rise in stablecoins reserve and then an ATH, while the last one during the drop we only saw an hesitation, and then a rise (which is currently mostly benefiting altcoins). To follow on the next correction.

All Stablecoins: All Exchanges Netflow on CryptoQuant

Very, very sinusoidal. Huge positive netflow = huge rise. Huge negative netflow = meh drop.

Lower lows: what could they mean ? We should maybe correlate that info with the recent miner accumulation trend. Or maybe people are less inclined to balance their portfolio with yield.

I find it very strange that CryptoQuant puts that chart very low on their list, while the inflow transaction count is at the very top.

All Stablecoins: All Exchanges Inflow Transaction Count on CryptoQuant

Since beginning of the year, every major exchanges inflow count was a top signal. People put their stables before withdrawing them (to fiat ?). We are gradually seeing higher lows. What would be the tipping point of that “organic” trend ? What was it in 2017 ? Sadly I need a premium account to check that… which I suscribed to ! (Since I had 39$ credits… hm)

All Stablecoins: All Exchanges Inflow Transaction Count on CryptoQuant Pro

This kind of information was not available at the time as it seems. Very sad. Although if we zoom in on the 2019 micro bull-run, we can see that inflow count are contained during the exponential phase of the bull-run, and once we enter the consolidation/beginning of the bear-run phase, spikes 2 times higher than the previous ones occur. To follow.

Okay it’s just more than a conclusion

CryptoQuant seems to be more interesting. Look at that:

ETH In/Outflow from All Exchanges on CryptoQuant

In 2017, every top was preceded by a top on Outflow Transactions Count (by just 10 days!). Then a top on Inflow Transactions Count was noticed. To keep track of.

Predictions

Past

BTCUSD on TradingView

Hm… not that great. I expected it to respect the ascending canal but ETH performed so well that people rotated towards him (my guess). Speaking of ETH:

ETHUSD on TradingView

Woops. I was pessimistic, who can blame me.

Future

BTCUSD on TradingView

Optimistic right here. This range can’t go for too long and fundamentals are here and solid. If ETH lets him some room… Bang.

ETHUSD on TradingView

Not many analysts would agree. But the shakeout we experienced this week wasn’t enough to let the market breath a little. Going back to 3600 would be healthy before reaching 5000.

Yields protocols

To start, yes I’ve been very broad on the definition of “Yields”. I will speak more broadly about protocols where you can deposit your tokens and earn more tokens as a result. i will mainly focus on USDC.

Yearn Finance

USDC 18,42% APY (1,5% monthly). Excellent community, secure, well managed. Known as the big brain club. Strangely no dashboard to see APYs evolutions.

Curve

USDC 21,34% APY (with 3pool), 40,29% APY (with sUSD pool). Well-known, no known major security breaches, simple interface.

AAVE

USDC 11,9% APY. Easy to use, “simple” functionalities (compared to the 2 previous), trying to get used by institutions. Note: 24,67% APY on USDT with the Polygon Market ! To consider.

Bug in the deposit displayed on the main menu ? To check.

Compound

USDC 7,27% APY. Experienced team, well-known protocol, safe and easy to use.

Conclusion

I think once low gas fees are in place (currently 322 gwei on average), I should deposit 500 on each protocols, and come back a month later. This way I would be able to:

  • Confirm the APY
  • Confirm the easy-to-use withdraw
  • Check if there is no hidden fees
  • Check the compatibility with my ledger
  • Check if there is impermanent loss

15% APY on average could be a fantastic opportunity during the 3 years before the next bull run.