May 20, 2021
Mistake part 35
Do not move up-stream to meet your enemy; Sun Tzu
I messed up
This week we are not even going to look at my BTC and ETH price predictions since they were destroyed.
I posted that I was still bullish on the yellow arrow. Ugh.
How do we define a bull ? We have been experiencing lower highs and lower lows for 37 days. What is the minimum duration for a bear market ? Is there unwritten rules for this ?
Lots of people were bullish at 60k. I saw very few to none bearish at this time.
What was wrong in my analysis
- Market sentiment: shows retail interests, it is a good information but not key
- Specialists point of view: since I am new to the space, the more people talk technical the more I tend to feel like they speak the truth. This is not always the case. + I am discovering perma-bulls, which are not healthy for my portfolio (and I think people like Michael Saylor have to be perma-bulls since it is beneficial for their portfolio)
- Stablecoins on exchanges: great information, but the LTF move can go both ways: maybe whales are depositing to buy the dip, not too moon it.
- Moving P&L: still pertinent
Where I should have looked
- Aggregated open interests: before the crash, PA went down 30%, but aggregated open interests only went down by 15%. People were still overconfident they could leverage all the way. In one day aggregated OI went down by 30%.
- Wallet sizes > 10000 BTC: they timed the top almost perfectly. A downtrend with that much momentum is a key signal
What’s next
We let the market express himself for a bit. We may miss some opportunity but that’s alright, we are still learning.
We will lock a big part of our portfolio onto several DeFi protocols with 15% yields on average once gas fees are low, and then we will top up our exchange wallets to prepare for next moves.
