Aug 26, 2021
Blog comeback
The rising of birds in their flight is an ambuscade ; Sun TZU
I’ve not written since the beginning of the downfall in May. Quite a lot has happened.
The main objective of this story is to check the current situation and to indicate which are the keys for future action (When & What)
Price Action
ETH is consolidating in its 2900–3350 range for almost 3 weeks now:
Daily RSI at 50, daily MACD bearish.
Weekly RSI at 60, weekly MACD bullish.
Pretty much the same on BTC, except the weekly MACD has almost reseted.
The comparison with the 2018 bullrun is quite interesting: the downfall and the fake bull run continuation that followed share the same durations. We will check to see if it continues to be true. This is very bearish.
The other interesting thing is that the volumes are just not there. Massive retail euphoria has not lasted, at least not on the 2 big tokens.
Open interest
Pretty steep move upwards. @20 B we should be careful as we would get around the volumes that we had just before the crash.
Options
The next big options expiry is on September 24th, and max pain price is @ 1920. Also bearish.
Conclusion
Not too much to analyze. But bearish I am.
I will wait for the cross of the 4H 200MA and 12MA on ETH to happen (Tuesday night ?) and then I’ll get back in the game with some shorts on FTX.
